+61 (02) 9825 2100
News / Press Releases    

WEEKLY PROPERTY REPORT

Friday, November 28, 2008

This week The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated that despite the depressed international economic environment, the impact of the financial crisis and the fall in the terms of trade should be relatively contained within Australia. The OECD expects the Australian unemployment rate will increase to 6% from 4.3% by 2010 and that the Australian economy will avoid a recession, with GDP growth slowing to 1.7% next year. The forecast from the OECD is quite glowing for Australia when compared to the other major economies of the world. The Organisation predicts that 21 of the 30 member economies of the OECD will go through a protracted recession of a magnitude not seen since the early 1980s.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next Tuesday to once again debate interest rate movements. The market is predicting a further rate cut of at least 75 basis points, with many economists suggesting the cut could be as high as 1.25 basis points, bringing the cash rate down to 4.0%.

Over the most recent week new property listings have shown a substantial fall. This result is likely to be due to a culmination of many vendors who have been waiting to list their property having done so already and fewer listings due to the proximity of the Christmas period. The total number of properties listed for sale has also fallen over the most recent week with approximately 152,000 properties listed for sale across the country. Despite the fall, total stock on the market remains well above the 12 month average, sitting at approximately 134,000 properties.

Whilst the most recent week has seen total property listings fall significantly it is still too early to say that the reported increase in enquiry is resulting in increased sales activity. However, if total stock continues to fall for another few weeks it will indicate a return of buyer activity. With volumes of new listings likely to continue to fall over the Christmas period the market may move closer to an equilibrium in effective supply and demand.

Auction clearance rates remain below average with just 50% of Melbourne auctions clearing last week, 42% of Sydney auctions and 25% of Brisbane auctions, Brisbane and Sydney clearance rates improved slightly compared to the previous week.

Table- Auction clearance rates - week ending 23

Graph - Residential property listings advertised each week



Sydney & Melbourne properties selling faster than other capital cities

This week’s Property Pulse looks at the average time it takes to sell properties in Australian capital cities and examines what factors impact the average time on the market.

The measurement of average time on the market is extremely important and is used to understand how the overall market is performing and how long it will take to sell a property. The time on the market statistic can be useful for many segments of the market. For agents, it is a good benchmark: are you taking a longer or shorter time to sell properties. For sellers it is important to understand why it takes longer to sell in the current market conditions. For buyers it is often the case that suburbs with a longer average selling time will, in most cases, be more negotiable.

On a city by city basis, houses currently sell the fastest in Melbourne, within 31 days, closely followed by Sydney where houses sell after an average of 34 days. Houses currently take the longest time to sell in Darwin (78 days) and Adelaide (69 days). The results over the last four years reflect the overall market trends during that time. For example, average time on the market within Sydney has shown little movement due to a fairly flat property market. Perth on the other hand, was experiencing a boom during 2005 and houses were taking just 25 days to sell, since that time buyers have become less active and value growth has transformed into value falls, resulting in houses taking longer to sell. The average Perth house currently takes 62 days to sell.

Graph- Australian Capital City Units: Average time on the                                    market

Perth is again a very good example of what can occur over time. As the market was booming during 2005, the average Perth unit took just 16 days to sell. During the following years value growth slowed and actually resulted in value falls and as such, time on the market has also increased substantially. Units currently take an average of 54 days to sell.

The two tables below detail quarterly value growth by mainland capital city and the average time on the market for house and unit sales. As the tables show, in almost all circumstances there is a direct relationship between value growth and time on the market. As quarterly value growth improves, the time on the market declines however, as quarterly value growth declines or falls in to negative, the average time on the market for properties increases dramatically.

Table- Avg time on market and quarterly                                    value growth: For Houses by capital city

Table - avg time on market and quarterly                                    value growth: For units by capital city

Another important relationship to understand is the link between time on the market and the average vendor expectation error or level of discounting. As the time on the market increases, it generally results in a greater level of vendor discounting in order to achieve the property sale. Again this is a clear link and as properties sit on the market for a longer period prospective buyers become aware that they have been available for sale for a long time potential buyers become less negotiable on their price, resulting in vendors generally needing to drop their asking price in order to achieve a sale.

Table- Avg time on market and average discount: for houses by capital city

Table - avg time on market and average discount for units by capital city

The relationships between value growth, the average time on the market and average discount is understood by most property professionals. However, vendors need to understand that when there are fewer buyers, properties take longer to sell and a realistic price expectation becomes paramount. Essentially, the equation comes down to the time value of money, is it better to sell at a slightly lower price and save on holding costs, or is it better to hold out for the desired price? This is the question that only the vendor can answer but one which in the current market agents certainly need to ask their vendors when properties aren’t selling.

 

The average time on the market for units has mirrored houses fairly closely over the last four years however, units generally sell quicker than houses. Currently, units sell the quickest in Melbourne (27 days), closely followed by Sydney (31 days). Units take the longest time to sell within Darwin (69 days) and Adelaide (62 days).

Graph- Australian Capital City Houses: Average ime on the market

- RP DATA

News Articles

Each office is independently owned and operated
© 2006 Coldwell Banker Corporation, Coldwell Banker ® is a registered trademark of the Coldwell Banker Corporation
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Disclaimer
Powered by HubOnline